A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
